tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-90827863088628989802012-03-04T18:04:24.126-05:00Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.comBlogger1201100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-14300574236715025862012-03-04T18:02:00.003-05:002012-03-04T18:04:24.137-05:00

My previous blog entry described the government's creation of a separate class of customer, which I put in the context of the need to get electricity pricing for industry competitive with other jurisdictions. I carefully referred to that methodology as 'absurd.' Today a review of why it is absurd, why it is bad that it is absurd, and why Ontario is worse off because absurd is tolerable in our

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-80357795352080189732012-03-03T14:13:00.001-05:002012-03-03T18:43:59.711-05:00

“The findings reflect reasonably consistent patterns of price response. At the national level, electricity price elasticity of -0.13 in the short run and -0.42 in the long run have been estimated.”  I first quoted that sentence, from a 2010  Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) analysis, in June of last year, in an article related to a bureaucrat's report.  Recently, another bureaucrat of

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-41349859989008932802012-03-02T16:17:00.003-05:002012-03-02T17:03:20.030-05:00

The weekly report has been updated to display week 8. Same outcomes again, with demand down, Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) off by about a third and moving in a narrow range. For the second week the highest price of the week was a spike at 7pm Saturday, as demand went up as wind production dropped.  It seems something is both attracting television viewers and sucking the air out of sections

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-38890436889866777462012-02-27T16:06:00.003-05:002012-02-27T17:07:46.432-05:00

My MPP finally got mentioned in the Globe and Mail That Dalton McGuinty would even consider no longer using slot-machine revenue to prop up an otherwise money-losing racing industry, veteran MPP Garfield Dunlop charged, is proof that the Premier “hates rural Ontario.”              -Adam Radwanski Ah yes ... the horse racing subsidy. This from a brief mention in the recent report of the

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-15424692979142444852012-02-25T13:03:00.000-05:002012-02-25T20:40:24.442-05:00

"Though energy from coal in 2011 was less than three per cent of total output, at times the flexibility of coal units is beneficial." "The availability of the remaining coal fleet, although running at reduced levels from previous years, provides flexibility which is very beneficial to the reliable operation of the Ontario power system." Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-71429354519552118132012-02-24T15:35:00.000-05:002012-02-24T15:35:06.744-05:00

The data sheets behind the NEW: Weekly Report, have been refreshed, so the reporting is now showing for the week of February 15-21. The demand trend down continued, with the average Ontario Demand dropping 542MW against the same week the previous year. The price trend down continues, with the average Hourly Ontario Energy Price dropping over $8/MWh from week 7 the previous year, which is about a

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-40639914422167952892012-02-17T14:48:00.000-05:002012-02-17T14:48:04.228-05:00

The data sheets behind the NEW: Weekly Report, have been refreshed, so the reporting is now showing for the week of February 8-14. The demand trend down continued, with the average Ontario Demand dropping 615MW against the same week the previous year, but a cold weekend did provide the first days up over the comparable day a year earlier (ie. the 6th Saturday of the year). The price trend down

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-55328339964653347602012-02-15T17:34:00.001-05:002012-02-15T18:06:09.690-05:00

Officially titled, the Don Drummond led "Commission on the Reform of Ontario's Public Services" devotes a section to electricity.  Here's the recommendation - along with my initial reaction to each of them: Recommendation 12-10: Eliminate the Ontario Clean Energy Benefit as quickly as possible. I guess that would be now – the vote buying worked already Recommendation 12-11: Review all other

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-68881813315200592912012-02-10T12:37:00.000-05:002012-02-10T12:37:05.182-05:00

The data sheets behind the NEW: Weekly Report, have been refreshed, so the reporting is now showing for the week of February 1-7. The demand trend down continues (as does the milder than usual winter), with the average Ontario Demand dropping over 1400MW against the same week the previous year. The price trend down continues, with the average Hourly Ontario Energy Price dropping over $14/MWh, to

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-69522387956318518662012-02-07T23:04:00.002-05:002012-02-08T07:27:08.087-05:00

After early reports, my testing does indicate the page referenced in this post, and many pages already on this site, are not compatible with Internet Explorer 8 - the last IE available for Windows XP. I have no intention of making the pages compatible - see the sidebar for options. I've posted a summary of weekly supply and demand statistics in Ontario. The final pieces of the data driving the

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-84527262221173351932012-01-17T15:36:00.002-05:002012-01-17T15:54:07.140-05:00

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts...for support rather than illumination."                                     -Andrew Lang (1844-1912) Scottish poet, novelist and literary criticOntario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) issued a news release on January 6th titled,“Composition of Ontario’s Electricity Supply Mix Continues to Change: Consumer Response Supports

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-26544172141673915942012-01-05T13:07:00.000-05:002012-01-05T13:13:30.914-05:00

I subscribed to a e-mail from the Ontario Power Authority, which sent out some power saving tips for the 'festive season.'  As the owner of an old home (1907), here's a review of the their 'tips for the festive season" • Replace old, incandescent holiday lights with LED lights. LEDs run much cooler, have lasting power and are energy efficient. Depending on how many 10's of thousand of $s you

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-78335612834513249772012-01-01T15:04:00.000-05:002012-01-02T18:13:46.561-05:00

 Goodbye 2011. This blog was new as 2010 turned to 2011. My first post of 2011 noted huge exports in December of 2010, negative pricing records for January 1, 2011, and record wind production in hour 21 of January 1st. It took about a week before the first reporter picked up on the subsidized exports story, which generated some interest in the mainstream media (MSM). Remarkably, in hour 18 of

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-29174342415332109332011-12-24T10:08:00.000-05:002012-01-01T17:01:33.136-05:00

I stumbled across something yesterday that jolted me away from Christmas planning.  I've not posted much this month as I've been suffering from writer's block in attempting to write Santa my list.  I don't wish  for stuff anymore - I generally mix up the old gift holiday with my murky religious philosophy. It's a season where a muddled mind is unavoidable - so I usually hope for wisdom. For

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-41701108483324093452011-12-13T15:58:00.000-05:002012-01-01T17:01:58.933-05:00

There's a lot of press, and commentary, on Canada's long-anticipated withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol. I've visited the International Energy Agency (IEA) site to grab a spreadsheet of CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion (the bulk of emissions), and done a couple of brief calculations to develop illustrations of why Canada exited Kyoto, and when we fell behind on our targets. The Kyoto Protocol

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-41283348630867685522011-12-12T14:51:00.001-05:002012-01-01T17:03:25.957-05:00

There have long been suspicions that Ontario has been dumping hydroelectric production.    Earlier this year a report  indicated Americans were generating power with the Ontario water allocation we were unable to use.  As the year progressed and water levels of the great lakes remained well above 2010 levels, it became apparent that Ontario’s hydro levels were producing at new lows as the year

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-24245070246559367042011-11-28T10:07:00.001-05:002012-01-01T17:05:04.111-05:00

Sunday November 27th saw a record for hourly electricity production from Ontario's wind turbines. Hour 10 has 1427MW recorded, which is 1MW higher than the 1426 recorded for hour 9 only two Sundays before.(endnote 1)  The day was also notable as mild temperatures further reduced Ontario's demand, which had already been trending down for the previous 6 weeks. Comparing hourly production data

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-69891643521621121622011-11-26T09:14:00.001-05:002012-01-01T17:06:55.676-05:00

On our American neighbour's Day of Thanksgiving, the Ontario's Independent Electric System Operator (IESO) released it's latest 18-Month Outlook, to May 2013.  The headline summary from the press release  was that "Over the next 18 months Ontario will continue to have an adequate supply of electricity to meet consumers' needs." That hasn't been an issue for years, and the present's premier

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-91801489629841271122011-11-24T09:20:00.001-05:002012-01-01T17:12:13.429-05:00

The press release for the OntarioEnergy Board's Market Surveillance Panel (MSP) Monitoring Report on Ontario'sElectricity Markets  noted four recommendations, including: “an increase in the frequency with which interties are scheduled, and the associated frequency of demand and intermittent generation forecasts as well as pre-dispatch schedules” and; "accelerating efforts to make wind

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-53566464330633314272011-11-17T18:03:00.001-05:002012-01-01T17:14:00.846-05:00

The current feed-in tariff (FiT) review in Ontario provides an excuse to explore some larger topics - like markets, efficiency, climate change and polices intended to lower emissions. FiT programs will drive up the price of electricity which threatens to reduce the movement of energy consumption towards increased use of electricity - a necessity in the eyes of may if overall carbon emissions are

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-28292152984625255712011-11-14T09:32:00.001-05:002012-01-01T17:16:45.811-05:00

Sunday November 13th saw record electricity production from Ontario's wind turbines.   No coal-fired generation was replaced, and emissions from electricity generation in Ontario increased over the comparable day from the previous year. The initial IESO data shows 32,401MWh of generation this past Sunday, which would be a record. (endnote 1). Hour 9 has 1426MW recorded, which is the highest

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-35932607129272475402011-11-11T14:38:00.001-05:002012-01-01T17:15:55.909-05:00

The Ontario government's announcement of a review of the Feed-In Tariff (FiT) program raised alarms among observer's of Ontario's electricity system.  The review has been put in the hands of a senior bureaucrat from outside of the electricity planning process, de-emphasizing knowledge of Ontario's electricity system..  The government developed a survey and wrote; "All Ontarians are invited to

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-28377105966629718232011-11-10T15:41:00.001-05:002012-01-01T17:18:43.699-05:00

Hydro One's Press Release on 3rd Quarter results includes a number of sentences that leave me scratching my head and wondering how much spending is necessary to keep the lights on, and how much should be attributed to the politically motivated connection of unreliable, heavily subsidized, generation. Curiosity  seems to be in short supply these days, as the country's most read papers

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-84020636545279864592011-11-01T16:18:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:20:31.323-05:00

A quick overview of some statistics, for October 2011, along with some views of the data not included in the IESO monthly reporting.   I offer these only as my own calculations based on freely available data from the IESO site.    Mistakes may be my own - some minor variances are expected as the IESO daily figures currently available lack the full detail of the weekly data updates which will

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-35802815164382227472011-11-01T14:07:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:25:03.344-05:00

I read an article in the newspaper the other day that began; “The skyrocketing cost of lighting city streets is the result of Ontario Energy Board (OEB) rate changes, city councillors were told Monday.”  The previous week the same council had heard of $130,000 associated with annual electricity bills for the new local twin-rink.  I hadn’t dwelled on it until I read it out loud to a visiting

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-48883943517035733332011-10-18T00:21:00.003-04:002012-01-01T17:26:03.989-05:00

Today the Ontario Energy Board (OEB) announced new electricity regulated price plan (RPP) rates for the coming winter. In the winter of 2009-2010, the Off-Peak Time-Of-Use Rate was 4.4 cents/kWh. It will be 6.2 cents/kWh for the winter of 2011-12, which is an increase of 41% over the past 2 years; the single-year increase is 21.6%.  In only 4 years the off-peak price, in winter, has doubled

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-63760519056662175102011-10-16T12:51:00.001-04:002012-01-01T17:26:41.191-05:00

Saturday October 15th saw record electricity production from Ontario's wind turbines.   No coal-fired generation was replaced, and emissions for electricity generation in Ontario were not reduced. The initial IESO data shows 31,328MWh of generation during the 15th, which is a record. Hour 16 has 1416MW recorded, which broke the old record of 1345MW (from February), as did production in the

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-52784800965909782562011-10-12T20:47:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:28:43.865-05:00

The comparative value of  of each generation source in Ontario’s electricity system is measurable.  I’ve written on this before, and recently read a couple of encouraging articles noting the shortcomings of the LUEC (levelized unit energy cost), or LCOE (levelized Cost Of Electricity) tools in evaluating electricity generating technologies.[i]   Presenting some of the data I’ve collected, in

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-46035800196147219342011-10-11T13:57:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:29:14.542-05:00

One of Ontario’s 3 main political parties had a lower percentage of eligible voters opt for their party than had been the case since 1943. That party won. Reported preliminary figures show Dalton McGuinty's Liberals won 53 of Ontario's 107 seats by collecting 37.62% of the 49.2% of possible electors that bothered to vote.  That's the lowest share of electors who chose the Liberal party

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-40532511928484514412011-10-07T12:09:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:29:33.113-05:00

Ontario’s election saw the Liberals returned to power, but reduced in stature to minority status.  They won 53 seats, and a majority required 54.  I wrote a blog entry, prior to the official start of the campaign, that noted; “Events of the past 2 weeks have made it much more likely that the new government could be the same as the old one.”   I didn’t have the courage to predict that – in fact

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-19692905850570088392011-10-06T00:32:00.001-04:002012-01-01T17:30:55.190-05:00

“The liberty of a democracy is not safe if the people tolerate the growth of private power to a point where it comes stronger than their democratic state itself. That, in its essence, is fascism - ownership of government by an individual, by a group,”                                                                   Franklin D. Roosevelt  I saw that quote, a long time ago, on sites opposing

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-68672720854565126412011-10-03T19:11:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:31:55.559-05:00

“If someone declares publicly that nuclear power would be needed in the baseload because of fluctuating energy from wind or sun in the grid, he has either not understood how an electricity grid or a nuclear power plant operates, or he consciously lies to the public. Nuclear energy and renewable energies cannot be combined.”—Siegmar Gabriel, then-Federal Environment Minister of Germany This

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-82059383172004392832011-10-03T00:10:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:32:51.826-05:00

A quick overview of some stats, for September 2011, along with some views of the data not included in the IESO monthly reporting.   I offer these only as my own calculations based on freely available data from the IESO site. Mistakes in the data may be my own ... but it's unlikely. The Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) was low in September, with the difference between on and off ‘

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-80202953614934381542011-09-28T01:23:00.001-04:002012-01-01T17:33:48.709-05:00

This is the fifth, and final, post in a series inspired by a UKStudy that concluded a “truism” for natural gas in the coming decades is ‘want wind, need gas.’” My previous post noted that the need for variable generation capacity, presumably primarily natural gas-fired, does not decrease as wind capacity increases over the next decade, although the annual generation from ‘peaking’ type

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-23013374071039105452011-09-23T19:22:00.001-04:002012-01-01T17:34:15.864-05:00

This is the fourth post in a series inspired by a UKStudy that concluded a “truism” for natural gas in the coming decades is ‘want wind, need gas.’” My previous post contained the promise of more data modeling work, allowing for an estimate of the true cost of Ontario's Electricity policy, particularly the cost of increased industrial wind turbine (IWT) capacity in an existing

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-7687527456420602412011-09-22T21:46:00.002-04:002012-01-01T17:34:52.557-05:00

This is the third post in a series inspired by a UKStudy that concluded a “truism” for natural gas in the coming decades is ‘want wind, need gas.’”  One of my goals is to determine the need for peaking capacity if more Industrial Wind Turbines (IWT’s) are added, but another is to provide a better accounting of the costs of the Ontario government’s grand experiment, inserting wind into a supply

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-4914159778699678822011-09-20T23:30:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:35:34.142-05:00

This is the second post in a series inspired by a UKStudy that concluded a “truism” for natural gas in the coming decades is ‘want wind, need gas.’” This post continues the analysis, of Ontario electricity sector data, that is loosely guided by Chapter 6 of a recent study from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.   Previously I demonstrated what typical wind production will look like in the

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-6130965052426369202011-09-19T18:15:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:37:29.019-05:00

This post became the first in a series inspired by a UKStudy that concluded a “truism” for natural gas in the coming decades is ‘want wind, need gas.’” I received an e-mail today from a concerned reader wondering at the lack of new posts. I wish I'd been simply doing other things, but I have been doing the back-end data collection to further my arguments regarding Ontario's electricity system

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-37581782517984991252011-09-11T17:29:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:38:40.360-05:00

“Forward. Together. The Ontario Liberal Plan 2011-2035” does not contain an electricity policy.  The platform, perhaps named as an homage to US President Nixon’s “Forward Together” slogan, has some very notable gaps where we’d expect some substance to be, the most notable of these being nuclear policy.  The word ‘nuclear’ does not appear once in the 60 page document.  I’m no Bob Woodward, but

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-79885525450541818342011-09-10T10:41:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:39:10.717-05:00

The Liberal Party has some terrific ads out for the election. Seriously. The Leadership/Education ad sounds great, and Premier McGuinty appears confident and assertive. But the message is deceitful. Nothing is more important to Ontario's Economic Future Than Education Kindergarten. The idea, of full-day kindergarten, has a long history in the Ontario Liberal party. Planning goes

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-56333390476678388732011-09-09T14:00:00.002-04:002012-01-01T17:41:43.103-05:00

I've been discombobulated this week, after driving my son off to begin university last weekend.  I did run my normal routines capturing summary figures for Ontario's electricity system in August, and I did watch energy specialists from Ontario's major parties, and the Greens, on The Agenda with Steve Paikin.  It was an ugly display for somebody with my positions on the electricity system. My

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-65832146599486130822011-09-01T20:53:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:42:15.663-05:00

Ontario had a record low pricing day, where we paid to dispose of generation, and the coverage in the press[i] meandered to quoting Minister of Energy Duguid; “It’s a distinguishing issue for the Ontario Liberal party and its premier, who have stood up and taken the decisions needed to be taken to get out of dirty coal … You can’t do it without wind and solar being part of the energy mix.”

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-72194006754091193552011-08-31T00:01:00.001-04:002012-01-01T17:42:49.647-05:00

People are trying to make sense of the record low electricity price Ontario achieved this Sunday.  I wrote about it Monday morning, but most are getting their information from other sources, including the Toronto Star– and these source don’t seem to working with any foundation in accounting.  I have some experience with ‘retail math’ – which is probably about a grade 7 level of math. I combined

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-51629427312090099342011-08-29T10:05:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:43:42.959-05:00

The official daily report from the system operator shows August 28th’s  an average HOEP at $-22.58 (weighted average of $-17.53/MWh).  This is the lowest average price throughout a single day on record – breaking a record set only January 1st.   A number of elements combined to drive the price down.  The most obvious of these is simply the reduced demand of a cool August Sunday.  The

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-54624904612754254242011-08-29T00:37:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:45:55.154-05:00

Public generation is increasingly being demoted to servicing private interests in Ontario. In April 2004, minister Dwight Duncan delivered a speech, to the Empire Club, titled “Choosing what Works for A Change.” In hindsight, the obvious question should have been, “Works for who?” “... we will be introducing legislation for sweeping institutional reform that would see a combination of a

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-37398318274944357122011-08-18T22:39:00.001-04:002012-01-01T17:46:36.982-05:00

The OEFC's 2011Annual report for the next OEFC fiscal year, ended March 31st, 2011, was being posted to their website as I was posting my article, Retire the Debt Retirement Charge . Remarkably the 2010 report wasn't posted until October 2010 – who knew the next would follow 10, and not 12, months later. I would note the phrasing on page 5 has been changed, specific to the residual

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-69222460738078155872011-08-18T14:13:00.002-04:002012-01-01T17:47:47.563-05:00

Ontario's Debt Retirement Charge (DRC) has become an election issue. The PC party made the removal of the DRC, which they introduced while forming the government1, a part of their election platform . The pledge is contained in the “Getting Home Energy Bills Under Control” section of their Changebook platform. The elimination of the DRC should help do that in the long run, but probably not in

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-77056272325117198952011-08-15T11:00:00.001-04:002012-01-01T17:48:09.346-05:00

In early October, Ontario will vote in the next provincial government.  Events of the past 2 weeks have made it much more likely that the new government could be the same as the old one. I wrote a blog entry as the federal election campaign kicked off, which began, “I predict a strengthened Conservative government, and probably a majority.”   That race didn’t pan out exactly as I planned,

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-4440779407372727362011-08-08T14:39:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:50:17.062-05:00

The Global Adjustment provides both adequate energy supply and green energy for Ontario. It accounts for differences between the market price and the rates paid to regulated and contracted generators and for conservation and demand management programs. The IESO provided a second, lowered, estimate for July's Global Adjustment (GA), of $30.75/MWh or $390.3 million. In July 2010, the

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-63060805323734383442011-08-04T01:38:00.001-04:002012-01-01T17:50:48.589-05:00

Diving into statistics doesn't always provide the expected result.  It would probably be best to leave it at that and move on, but ... I think I owe it to some traders to update a previous column ... and it never hurts to try and find something interesting. I've been trying to hold the government to account on the cost to Ontarians of our electricity exports, and I've been doing so using the

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-43094850171888073732011-08-01T14:17:00.006-04:002012-01-01T17:51:18.906-05:00

Wind is not going to replace coal in Ontario.  There are many claims wind generation is yet to replace any fossil fuel generating station in any jurisdiction, but Ontario may be particularly poorly suited for the introduction of industrial wind generation into our supply mix.  Electricity pricing looks to be an important issue destined to occupy much of the discourse in Ontario’s election this

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-33373734139308570912011-07-24T00:21:00.001-04:002012-01-01T17:54:02.579-05:00

It was an honour to work with Parker Gallant on “Ontario's Power Trip: Power dumping.”  I wanted to follow-up on some of the comments now attached to the article.  I don't do this necessarily as a response to the commentators, but some of the arguments recur frequently in government and ENGO releases, so I have worked on some responses. Kevin Hryclik noted we should be thinking about

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-45126882379038207952011-07-21T00:19:00.003-04:002012-01-01T17:53:52.449-05:00

Ontario’s Power Trip: Power dumping | FP Comment | Financial Post The article is by Parker Gallant and myself, Scott Luft. "During the spring months in Ontario, the winds blow a lot. For companies in the wind-power business, that’s good news. For the province’s electricity consumers, though, it’s another financial disaster that, on an annual basis, drains up to $400-million out of

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-88522635519044244352011-07-14T18:59:00.001-04:002012-01-01T17:54:39.315-05:00

I've been mulling over tackling this topic since the ENGO's launched a campaign, to support the Green Energy Act and related FIT lotteries, built around implications of increasingly large heath costs due to the use of coal plants - despite a 90% reduction in the use of those coal plants. Recently there's been a great deal of news related to the points I thought were pertinent, the primary one

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-2455194166317683702011-07-06T14:49:00.001-04:002012-01-01T17:55:17.697-05:00

An article in the Toronto Star, Don't blame green power: Energy bills rising anyway, alerted me to the latest marketing pitch from the Pembina Institute. Behind the Swithch, Pricing Ontario Electricity Options is the latest propaganda release. It claims to consider 2 scenarios: in one Ontario's Green Energy Act (rumoured to have been penned by a cabal including Pembina) continues to gut

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-42170267683751007992011-07-02T14:51:00.002-04:002012-01-01T17:57:08.334-05:00

Ontario's electricity sector experienced more of the same during the first half of the year - which continues to betray the ongoing mistakes of the government and the Ontario Power Authority (OPA). The headline figures for the first half the year, when June's numbers are finalized in a couple of weeks, should be anemic demand growth accompanied by inflation in pricing of almost 10%. But

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-14185269121760998652011-06-28T21:38:00.000-04:002012-01-01T17:57:57.590-05:00

Google led me to a Huffpost Canada stupidity the other day, “Wind Power:  A Quiet Solution to Climate Change” Following the title comes; “We asked a tough question today: Is the fear and anxiety being spread about the sound of wind power justified?” A horse’s ass has reason to hope the cart goes before the horse, but it really doesn’t.  The correct first question should address the title;  “

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-55614344360545520112011-06-22T10:24:00.004-04:002012-01-01T17:58:39.657-05:00

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) has released the Monthly Market Report for May 2011, and it confirms the message of rapid price inflation for Ontario's business sector. The Commodity Charge for the businesses/industries subject to the wholesale rate soared to $75.94/MWh, driven primarily by a Global Adjustment charge of $50.05/MWh. That is a 17% increase over May 2010's

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-37837526526605240982011-06-15T23:43:00.002-04:002012-01-01T17:59:16.565-05:00

June 15th is apparently Global Wind Day. I put some thought, and study, into what to wish for, and not just for myself. From the first entry of this blog I've been examining Ontario electricity system issues, particularly supply and demand metrics. The IESO site now shows the May global adjustment finalized at an enormous $50.05/MWh, while the average HOEP rate averaged $25.89/MWh. The

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-29661726464738127412011-06-15T11:21:00.000-04:002012-01-01T18:00:21.970-05:00

Elements of Parkinson's Law: Work Expands so as to fill the time available for its completion An official wants to multiply subordinates, not rivals Officials make work for each other. Gord Miller was in the press yesterday, a lot, following the release of Managing a Complex Energy System: Annual Energy conservation Progress Report -201 (Volume One), with most of the attention

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-23950122134233718292011-06-13T14:07:00.001-04:002012-01-01T18:01:16.661-05:00

I'm constantly amazed how difficult it is to underestimate the value of generation from industrial wind turbines. I have queried hourly generation data by source 'fuels' to demonstrate the 'value' of the various sources. I was inspired to do so while writing my previous post, which calculated average hourly rates of imports/exports for different jurisdictions. Quebec was much more

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-91630979030713211722011-06-11T12:39:00.002-04:002012-01-01T18:01:42.436-05:00

During the first 10 days of June the data shows Ontario has been a net exporter of electricity to Quebec, of approximately 27,565 MWh. Combine the hourly intertie data with hourly price data, and you get a net payment to Quebec of about $3,685,811, which works out to paying Quebec about $134/MWh - just using the net figures. Out of context it isn't a meaningful statistic, but put in context it

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-65797140493096267822011-06-09T21:55:00.001-04:002012-01-01T17:00:16.983-05:00

This release, Electricity Exports Help Keep Ontario's Supply Strong,  is remarkably dishonest "This revenue helps Ontario: Keep costs down for families" No, this revenue set against the costs of producing the power does not keep costs down for families.  This figure is meaningless by itself, and put together with the purchasing costs adds, by my calculations, $50 million to the costs of

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-54328401098918878122011-06-01T19:19:00.001-04:002012-01-01T16:57:26.780-05:00

The operator of Ontario's electricity system, the IESO has posted it's 2nd estimate of the global adjustment for May 2011, and the estimated rate of $49.94/MWh is a record high, as is the $496.1 million dollars. I've been on the themes driving the increased pricing in Ontario for some time, and May serves as the starkest reminder of the remarkable callousness of Ontario's electricity policy in

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-2611628987669588542011-05-29T21:19:00.000-04:002012-01-01T16:55:11.981-05:00

Ontario has been providing Quebec with cheap electricity following the loss of large industrial customers in Ontario to the cheaper electricity of Quebec. “Here is the history: Last year, Xstrata closed their copper refinery in Timmins. They’re going to continue to take the ore out of the ground in Timmins, but now they’re going to ship it to Quebec to have it smelted there, and about 2,000

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-1691919358985991382011-05-27T13:23:00.002-04:002012-01-01T16:54:11.376-05:00

Are you familiar with the term “Jerk”? I came across the word a number of times in a fantastic series of comments attached to a very interesting article, CO2 avoidance cost with wind energy in Australia and carbon price implications, so I looked it up on wikipedia: “In physics, jerk, also known as jolt (especially in British English), surge and lurch, is the rate of change of

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-79512499862490619562011-05-24T23:32:00.000-04:002012-01-01T16:23:12.045-05:00

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) has been dealing with many hours where Ontario's baseload supply exceeds Ontario's demand - a situation now referred to as surplus baseload generation (SBG). In recent weeks, SBG is a condition that has existed up to 70% of all hours. Today, a media news release from the IESO included, "Exports have played a significant role in managing

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-34771661755815345142011-05-20T11:53:00.000-04:002011-05-20T11:53:34.365-04:00

Aldyen Donnelly: The indispensable report | Energy Probe----"The data clearly shows that energy consumption taxes (carbon-weighted or otherwise) are highly regressive–though not as regressive as value added consumption taxes. Though still imperfect, vehicle taxes appear much more equitable. And vehicle taxes that are pro-rated to vehicle weight and emission ratings (as opposed to kilometers

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-8147175357049506482011-05-20T11:07:00.000-04:002012-01-01T16:08:21.549-05:00

The latest SBG report shows there are only 10 hours during the next 10 days when Ontario is capable of not producing too much supply for Ontario's market. Over the first 130 days of the year, Ontario's net exports grew 50% from last year, while the market price (HOEP) dropped 8%.  The variance between the price Ontarians pay, and exports, is the global adjustment. In 2011 this means export

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-81908823797751717712011-05-19T11:15:00.000-04:002012-01-01T16:07:00.295-05:00

I viewed Mr. Duguid's inteview, on The Agenda, shortly after reading, here, the Darlington new-build proposal's opponents continue to hammer that no reactor should be built because the government, and OPG, can't prove there aren't alternatives, and with some nonsensical moral tale about waste. I am constantly appalled by the negation of will implied in these arguments. We do create

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-20431897218360152352011-05-18T19:14:00.003-04:002012-01-01T16:05:06.926-05:00

BPA News - High river flows cause limits on thermal, wind generation "High river flows generating a temporary oversupply of hydroelectricity caused the Bonneville Power Administration last night to partially and temporarily limit the output of non-hydroelectric energy, including fossil-fuel and other thermal generation and wind energy." I wrote about this situation earlier, and sure enough

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-81472743751971334072011-05-18T13:29:00.000-04:002012-01-01T16:03:33.839-05:00

The Ontario government recently announced, “Ontario's use of coal-fired power is down 90 per cent in the first three months of 2011, when compared to the same time frame in 2003."  This is good news, which is followed by some questionable claims regarding health impacts, and then the misleading statement that “Ontario is on the right track to building a clean, modern and reliable electricity

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-50938221200253545692011-05-16T18:59:00.001-04:002012-01-01T16:00:49.436-05:00

The Global Adjustment rate for April is $43.89/MWh, which is the highest it has ever been. The reality of the mess we are in is being hidden by the mainstream press deflecting the blame from the government, such as Metro Martin's, “a small proportion of the recent hikes can be attributed to subsidies, for the simple reason that few renewable energy projects are up and running yet.” At The Globe

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-67876364174336186362011-05-04T23:29:00.004-04:002012-01-01T15:57:31.389-05:00

A month ago I wrote on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), noting it indicated the largest wind production states were not reducing emissions as quickly as the other states.  One notable exception was New York state, which is amongst the best performing states in reducing CO2, SO2 and NOx emissions since 1990.  I’ve been meaning to revisit this once more by comparing the

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-51374954466503696732011-04-27T23:27:00.001-04:002012-01-01T15:55:14.750-05:00

The Toronto Sun had an editorial this morning on “Clean electricity’s dirty secret”.  It must have generated a buzz about the negative pricing, and dumping of hydro supply, because it was followed this afternoon with an article, by Antonella Artuso, which told us of the Premier’s responses to reporters’ questions regarding exporting power cheaply;  “McGuinty said he appreciates that many

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-49005864019682515992011-04-20T10:05:00.001-04:002012-01-01T15:37:09.306-05:00

Yesterday price hikes were announced by the Ontario Energy Board (OEB). You'll likely average about 7.28 cents/kWh after May 1st. Yesterday the Ontario government issued a press release beginning “Ontario families can expect stable electricity bills this summer and fall due to the new Ontario Clean Energy Benefit (OCEB), which is taking 10 per cent off monthly bills for families, farms and

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-56778458740708730602011-04-19T00:07:00.002-04:002012-01-01T15:35:27.363-05:00

p { margin-bottom: 0.21cm; }a:link { } Forbes has a report today on The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), being forced to abandon plans to limit wind output in periods of extreme oversupply.  I noted in a previous post a New York Times Blog entry that explained the BPA can't spill water to avoid generating power; “Water that goes over a spillway as opposed to through a turbine

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-40321887871411159612011-04-11T11:17:00.000-04:002012-01-01T15:33:42.711-05:00

p.sdendnote { margin-left: 0.5cm; text-indent: -0.5cm; margin-bottom: 0cm; font-size: 10pt; }p { margin-bottom: 0.21cm; }a.western:link { }a.ctl:link { }a.sdendnoteanc { font-size: 57%; } Building a Case For Investment, is a report prepared by the Conference Board of Canada. The report, (which I'll refer to as simply The Case) contains some some questionable assumptions, but a lot of

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-28257601793940691132011-04-07T23:07:00.001-04:002012-01-01T15:32:34.679-05:00

p { margin-bottom: 0.21cm; }a:link { } Electricity generation made a surprise appearance in our federal election campaign last Friday, when Prime Minister Harper ventured to Newfoundland and announced a new Conservative government would provide loan support for a lower Churchill hydro project.   Sunday brought the reintroduction of cap-and-trade as the Liberals dropped their policy book,

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-42759362550834990212011-03-29T21:38:00.001-04:002012-01-01T15:30:21.243-05:00

2010-11 Time-of-Use Consultation (EB-2010-0364) I’ve prepared some remarks as I consider a response to the Ontario Energy Board (OEB) review of the Retail Pricing Plan (RPP), and specifically the Time Of Use (TOU) pricing.  The Board notes, in Kirsten Walli’s letter of October 18,2010, that now that the board has directed all residential customers be moved to TOU pricing, and many customers

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-61923821410337008542011-03-29T11:41:00.000-04:002012-01-01T15:28:39.093-05:00

I was intrigued by the news that Chancellor Merkel created an ethics commission to study the use of nuclear power in Germany.  It’s an interesting challenge, and not just for nuclear energy.   Merkel’s creation of an ethics commission to investigate nuclear generation struck me as a second cynical act (the first being simply removing older reactors from service for 3 months).  Voters in

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-44064669400273349172011-03-26T17:58:00.000-04:002012-01-01T15:26:52.375-05:00

I predict a strengthened Conservative government, and probably a majority. There are a number of reasons for that, most having nothing to do with timely specifics, policies, or image. The trends are towards a Conservative majority, and I don’t believe anything has occurred that changes that trend. Tracking elections since Mulroney’s 1984 triumph (the last time the victor won over 50% of

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-33395959675263145972011-03-22T11:17:00.001-04:002012-01-01T15:18:05.621-05:00

I haven’t written a blog entry since the earthquake and tsunami rocked Japan.   I switched on the television that day and the video coming in turned my stomach as I recalled the initial reporting on the quake, and tsunami, in the Indian Ocean.   The situation has unfolded, now as then, with the extent of the massive devastation being unveiled slowly.  I have 3 sons in the house and I discussed

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-86467050048266269352011-03-09T20:09:00.004-05:002012-01-01T14:54:20.644-05:00

p { margin-bottom: 0.21cm; }a:link { } As our federal government is cited for contempt of Parliament, it is notable that our provincial government also seems to be lacking in respect for the provincial legislature. From the Hansard for March 8th (heavily edited to try to get just the question, and answer, and the two follow-ups): Mr. Tim Hudak: “...Premier, exactly how much higher are

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-27104501839325665592011-03-08T19:19:00.001-05:002012-01-01T14:53:30.809-05:00

I noticed at The Globe and Mail site an article, on yet another Climate Change study, which began “Climate change will have the greatest effect on those least responsible for causing the problem, a new study suggests.”  The most successful parts of the planet did industrialize early, and the most productive countries have tended to be northern.  I think we could spot a coincidence, if we weren’t

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-61276339641840820902011-03-08T09:13:00.002-05:002012-01-01T14:48:53.269-05:00

p { margin-bottom: 0.21cm; }a:link { } The IESO describes Surplus Baseload Generaton (SBG) as, “a condition that occurs when electricity production from baseload facilities is greater than Ontario demand. There are limited options available to lower output from baseload generators in order to maintain the balance between supply and demand. It is expected that incidences of SBG may increase

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-43070210431280193532011-03-02T18:05:00.002-05:002012-01-01T14:46:55.667-05:00

I’ve been looking outside my little setting in the province in Ontario for data indicating signs of intelligent life in the electricity policy universe.  The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides a wealth of data, and forecasts.  I’ve started working with a number of tables/spreadsheets for the period 1990-2009.   The first thing I checked was for the correlation between wind and

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-15382453098548743162011-02-28T09:18:00.000-05:002011-02-28T09:18:53.481-05:00

p { margin-bottom: 0.21cm; }a:link { } As the world watches demonstrations erupt all over the Middle East and the north of Africa, the popular press is suffering amnesia regarding the President they loved to malign as a fundamentalist fool. A quick visit to another source maligned by the intelligensia, Wikipedia, confirms my memories with its explanation of the Bush Doctine as, “including

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-91033017954073948572011-02-26T09:06:00.001-05:002012-01-01T14:44:50.384-05:00

John Spears is out with yet another article in the red Toronto Star, quoting, extensively, the Canadian Wind Energy Association's Robert Hornung.  “Wind advocate warns against policy shifts” again notes CANwea's Hornung claiming the low cost per kWh of wind is a cost effective alternative to other new supply possibilities.  It is per MWh, but in reality it doesn't replace any need for

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-66848740079918992512011-02-24T12:09:00.000-05:002012-01-01T14:40:07.766-05:00

Today, the Ontario government announced another round of winners in Ontario Power Authority’s FIT sweepstakes.  Next week the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) has meetings to develop the infrastructure to facilitate paying the FIT sweepstakes winners not to produce any output.  The basis of the IESO’s planning is noted in their 'Integrating Renewable Resources - Design Principles'

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-65415532609254970542011-02-19T09:31:00.002-05:002012-01-01T13:59:37.113-05:00

At 7 pm on Friday February 18th, 2011, Ontario wind generators hit a new record high, with the IESO reporting 1350MW of wind output. For the entire day, wind production was 30,492MW (also a new record). This is enough electricity to power a gazillion homes like mine - because my home just has a ghost power supply at the moment.  Credit to D-Link and Rogers for making equipment that works on

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-75235952246468041292011-02-18T10:34:00.000-05:002012-01-01T13:57:05.478-05:00

I’m a Dylan fan that opposes the Ontario government’s plans for industrial wind turbines (IWT).  “Blowin’ in the wind” is not high on my list of favourite Dylan songs – I consider it his Kumbaya.  I’m weary, my Lord, of the constant references to ‘Blowin’ In The Wind” in stories in the press regarding IWT’s.   You only need two eyes to see the foolishness of that policy.  You only need two ears

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-20881220377919398572011-02-17T19:37:00.004-05:002012-01-01T13:54:24.636-05:00

Less than one week after saying there wasn’t enough research to proceed with off-shore wind, reinstating the moratorium lifted 2 years ago, and returning to a time when there wasn’t enough research, the government issued a release today stating ”Long-Term Energy Plan Takes Another Step Forward.”    The off-shore wind is now simply planned for on-shore - most probably very near the shores of Erie

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-63649742930169160762011-02-16T21:12:00.002-05:002012-01-01T13:52:02.195-05:00

The National Energy Board’s Electricity Exports and Imports Monthly Statistics for December 2009 is a document that is educational in showing the differences between Canada’s provinces and their electricity policies. Table 2A contains, for Ontario, 37 “Sources” for exports showing totals of $518,512,069 for 14,779,854MWh, which is $35.08/MWh.  Ontario’s public generator, OPG, appears to be

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-21945044832579239902011-02-10T12:28:00.001-05:002011-02-12T00:06:37.961-05:00

Prince Edward County’s new council  called for a moratorium on Industrial Wind Turbine installations on Tuesday, February 8, 2011.  Councillor Terry Shortt said, democratically, “The public has had their voice.  It is time for the province to hear us.”   The resolution included “BE IT RESOLVED THAT the County of the County of Prince Edward requests the Ontario Provincial Government to implement a

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-37053425357999243432011-02-08T14:35:00.002-05:002012-01-01T13:51:17.754-05:00

Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing is being implemented in Ontario.  This should provide the personal benefits of Ontario’s spending on smart meters.  More likely, it will result in the same efficiency gains we’ve seen on our bills from the rest of the smart grid initiatives (higher line loss factors added to our usage, and higher delivery charges in general).    Electricity policy encompasses issues of

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-89137453998504051472011-02-07T09:22:00.001-05:002012-01-01T13:48:00.754-05:00

The Financial Post has a short note today on the latest whimsy at the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) - selling Environmental Attributes. Shortly after the closing of North America's only carbon trading market, The Chicago Climate Exchange, the Financial Post cites a bulletin from Borden Ladner Gervais LLP’s (BLG) Climate Change Group, who seem perplexed as to why this would happen now - and

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-82368148996484920782011-02-04T11:39:00.000-05:002012-01-01T13:46:46.385-05:00

An article begins with "The Canadian Province of Ontario has announced plans to launch a $50 million smart grid initiative aimed at driving investment in research, capital and demonstration projects." They didn't do that on any Government of Ontario site I can locate. If by announced you mean whisper it in a foreign jurisdiction through a City of Guelph employee aligned with yet another

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-90318977875920990492011-02-04T11:24:00.000-05:002012-01-01T13:45:34.686-05:00

p { margin-bottom: 0.21cm; } February 3rd, 2011, hour 20, wind output at 1288MW A new high for Ontario. February 3rd, 2011, hour 24: Where did Bruce Unit 5 go? It is pure conjecture, on my part, to assume we are paying for the nuclear unit not to produce while it is windy  -- but if that's impetus for people to read Tom Adam's submission to the IESO on the topic of Industrial Wind Turbine

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9082786308862898980.post-38507085477637975772011-02-01T16:11:00.001-05:002012-01-01T13:44:30.879-05:00

This blog has identified the Global Adjustment as a measurement of the market's dysfunction.  Distorting a market price set by transactions between willing buyers and willing sellers (the Hourly Ontario Energy Price), the Global Adjustment is a mechanism to charge Ontario consumers for whatever production, at whatever price, the government has deemed desirable to contract. The IESO has now

Scott Lufthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09219859339423144673noreply@blogger.com0